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# Arkansas - Mathematics: High School: Statistics and Probability

## Curriculum Framework | Adopted: 2016

### AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID: : Interpreting Categorical and Quantitative Data

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.A: : Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.A.1: : Represent data with plots on the real number line (dot plots, histograms, and box plots).

Box-and-Whisker Plots

Construct a box-and-whisker plot to match a line plots, and construct a line plot to match a box-and-whisker plots. Manipulate the line plot and examine how the box-and-whisker plot changes. Then manipulate the box-and-whisker plot and examine how the line plot changes. 5 Minute Preview

Histograms

Change the values in a data set and examine how the dynamic histogram changes in response. Adjust the interval size of the histogram and see how the shape of the histogram is affected. 5 Minute Preview

Mean, Median, and Mode

Build a data set and find the mean, median, and mode. Explore the mean, median, and mode illustrated as frogs on a seesaw, frogs on a scale, and as frogs stacked under a bar of variable height. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.A.2: : Use statistics appropriate to the shape of the data distribution to compare center (median, mean) and spread (interquartile range, standard deviation) of two or more different data sets.

Box-and-Whisker Plots

Construct a box-and-whisker plot to match a line plots, and construct a line plot to match a box-and-whisker plots. Manipulate the line plot and examine how the box-and-whisker plot changes. Then manipulate the box-and-whisker plot and examine how the line plot changes. 5 Minute Preview

Describing Data Using Statistics

Investigate the mean, median, mode, and range of a data set through its graph. Manipulate the data and watch how the mean, median, mode, and range change (or, in some cases, how they don't change). 5 Minute Preview

Real-Time Histogram

Try to click your mouse once every 2 seconds. The time interval between each click is recorded, as well as the error and percent error. Data can be displayed in a table, histogram, or scatter plot. Observe and measure the characteristics of the resulting distribution when large amounts of data are collected. 5 Minute Preview

Sight vs. Sound Reactions

Measure your reaction time by clicking your mouse as quickly as possible when visual or auditory stimuli are presented. The individual response times are recorded, as well as the mean and standard deviation for each test. A histogram of data shows overall trends in sight and sound response times. The type of test as well as the symbols and sounds used are chosen by the user. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.A.3: : Interpret differences in shape, center, and spread in the context of the data sets, accounting for possible effects of extreme data points (outliers).

Mean, Median, and Mode

Build a data set and find the mean, median, and mode. Explore the mean, median, and mode illustrated as frogs on a seesaw, frogs on a scale, and as frogs stacked under a bar of variable height. 5 Minute Preview

Reaction Time 2 (Graphs and Statistics)

Test your reaction time by catching a falling ruler or clicking a target. Create a data set of experiment results, and calculate the range, mode, median, and mean of your data. Data can be displayed on a list, table, bar graph or dot plot. The Reaction Time 2 Student Exploration focuses on mean. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.A.4: : Use the mean and standard deviation of a data set to fit it to a normal distribution and to estimate population percentages. Recognize that there are data sets for which such a procedure is not appropriate. Use calculators and/or spreadsheets to estimate areas under the normal curve.

Polling: City

Poll residents in a large city to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Estimate the actual percentage of yes votes in the whole city. Examine the results of many polls to help assess how reliable the results from a single poll are. See how the normal curve approximates a binomial distribution for large enough polls. 5 Minute Preview

Populations and Samples

Compare sample distributions drawn from population distributions. Predict characteristics of a population distribution based on a sample distribution and examine how well a small sample represents a given population. 5 Minute Preview

Real-Time Histogram

Try to click your mouse once every 2 seconds. The time interval between each click is recorded, as well as the error and percent error. Data can be displayed in a table, histogram, or scatter plot. Observe and measure the characteristics of the resulting distribution when large amounts of data are collected. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.B: : Summarize, represent, and interpret data on two categorical and quantitative variables

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.B.6: : Represent data on two quantitative variables on a scatter plot, and describe how the variables are related. Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve problems in the context of the data. Informally assess the fit of a function by plotting and analyzing residuals.

Correlation

Explore the relationship between the correlation coefficient of a data set and its graph. Fit a line to the data and compare the least-squares fit line. 5 Minute Preview

Least-Squares Best Fit Lines

Fit a line to the data in a scatter plot using your own judgment. Then compare the least squares line of best fit. 5 Minute Preview

Solving Using Trend Lines

Examine the scatter plots for data related to weather at different latitudes. The Gizmo includes three different data sets, one with negative correlation, one positive, and one with no correlation. Compare the least squares best-fit line. 5 Minute Preview

Trends in Scatter Plots

Examine the scatter plot for a random data set with negative or positive correlation. Vary the correlation and explore how correlation is reflected in the scatter plot and the trend line. 5 Minute Preview

Zap It! Game

Adjust the values in a quadratic function, in vertex form or in polynomial form, to "zap" as many data points as possible. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.C: : Interpret linear models

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.C.7: : Interpret the slope (rate of change) and the intercept (constant term) of a linear model in the context of the data.

Cat and Mouse (Modeling with Linear Systems)

Experiment with a system of two lines representing a cat-and-mouse chase. Adjust the speeds of the cat and mouse and the head start of the mouse, and immediately see the effects on the graph and on the chase. Connect real-world meaning to slope, y-intercept, and the intersection of lines. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.ID.C.8: : Compute (using technology) and interpret the correlation coefficient of a linear fit.

Correlation

Explore the relationship between the correlation coefficient of a data set and its graph. Fit a line to the data and compare the least-squares fit line. 5 Minute Preview

### AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC: : Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.A: : Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.A.1: : Recognize statistics as a process for making inferences about population parameters based on a random sample from that population.

Polling: City

Poll residents in a large city to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Estimate the actual percentage of yes votes in the whole city. Examine the results of many polls to help assess how reliable the results from a single poll are. See how the normal curve approximates a binomial distribution for large enough polls. 5 Minute Preview

Polling: Neighborhood

Conduct a phone poll of citizens in a small neighborhood to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Use the results to estimate the sentiment of the entire population. Investigate how the error of this estimate becomes smaller as more people are polled. Compare random versus non-random sampling. 5 Minute Preview

Populations and Samples

Compare sample distributions drawn from population distributions. Predict characteristics of a population distribution based on a sample distribution and examine how well a small sample represents a given population. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.A.2: : Compare theoretical and empirical probabilities using simulations (e.g. such as flipping a coin, rolling a number cube, spinning a spinner, and technology).

Geometric Probability

Randomly throw darts at a target and see what percent are "hits." Vary the size of the target and repeat the experiment. Study the relationship between the area of the target and the percent of darts that strike it 5 Minute Preview

Independent and Dependent Events

Compare the theoretical and experimental probabilities of drawing colored marbles from a bag. Record results of successive draws to find the experimental probability. Perform the drawings with replacement of the marbles to study independent events, or without replacement to explore dependent events. 5 Minute Preview

Probability Simulations

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of particular outcomes to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of a particular outcome to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.B: : Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.B.3: : Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies. Explain how randomization relates to sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies.

Polling: City

Poll residents in a large city to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Estimate the actual percentage of yes votes in the whole city. Examine the results of many polls to help assess how reliable the results from a single poll are. See how the normal curve approximates a binomial distribution for large enough polls. 5 Minute Preview

Polling: Neighborhood

Conduct a phone poll of citizens in a small neighborhood to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Use the results to estimate the sentiment of the entire population. Investigate how the error of this estimate becomes smaller as more people are polled. Compare random versus non-random sampling. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.B.4: : Use data from a sample survey to estimate a population mean or proportion. Develop a margin of error through the use of simulation models for random sampling.

Polling: City

Polling: Neighborhood

Conduct a phone poll of citizens in a small neighborhood to determine their response to a yes-or-no question. Use the results to estimate the sentiment of the entire population. Investigate how the error of this estimate becomes smaller as more people are polled. Compare random versus non-random sampling. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.B.5: : Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments. Use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant.

Polling: City

Polling: Neighborhood

AR.Math.Content.HSS.IC.B.6: : Read and explain, in context, the validity of data from outside reports by: Identifying the variables as quantitative or categorical. Describing how the data was collected. Indicating any potential biases or flaws. Identifying inferences the author of the report made from sample data.

Describing Data Using Statistics

Investigate the mean, median, mode, and range of a data set through its graph. Manipulate the data and watch how the mean, median, mode, and range change (or, in some cases, how they don't change). 5 Minute Preview

Polling: City

Polling: Neighborhood

Populations and Samples

Compare sample distributions drawn from population distributions. Predict characteristics of a population distribution based on a sample distribution and examine how well a small sample represents a given population. 5 Minute Preview

Real-Time Histogram

Try to click your mouse once every 2 seconds. The time interval between each click is recorded, as well as the error and percent error. Data can be displayed in a table, histogram, or scatter plot. Observe and measure the characteristics of the resulting distribution when large amounts of data are collected. 5 Minute Preview

### AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP: : Conditional Probability and the Rules of Probability

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A: : Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.1: : Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using characteristics (or categories) of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or complements of other events (“or,” “and,” “not”).

Independent and Dependent Events

Compare the theoretical and experimental probabilities of drawing colored marbles from a bag. Record results of successive draws to find the experimental probability. Perform the drawings with replacement of the marbles to study independent events, or without replacement to explore dependent events. 5 Minute Preview

Probability Simulations

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of particular outcomes to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of a particular outcome to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.2: : Understand that two events A and B are independent if the probability of A and B occurring together is the product of their probabilities, and use this characterization to determine if they are independent.

Independent and Dependent Events

Compare the theoretical and experimental probabilities of drawing colored marbles from a bag. Record results of successive draws to find the experimental probability. Perform the drawings with replacement of the marbles to study independent events, or without replacement to explore dependent events. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.3: : Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.

Independent and Dependent Events

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.A.4: : Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected student from your school will favor science given that the student is in tenth grade. Do the same for other subjects and compare the results.

Histograms

Change the values in a data set and examine how the dynamic histogram changes in response. Adjust the interval size of the histogram and see how the shape of the histogram is affected. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.B: : Use the rules of probability to compute probabilities of compound events.

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.B.6: : Find the conditional probability of A given B.

Independent and Dependent Events

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.B.8: : Apply the general Multiplication Rule in a uniform probability model, P(A and B) = P(A)P(B|A) = P(B)P(A|B), and interpret the answer in terms of the model.

Independent and Dependent Events

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.B.9: : Use permutations and combinations to compute probabilities of compound events and solve problems.

Binomial Probabilities

Find the probability of a number of successes or failures in a binomial experiment using a tree diagram, a bar graph, and direct calculation. 5 Minute Preview

Permutations and Combinations

Experiment with permutations and combinations of a number of letters represented by letter tiles selected at random from a box. Count the permutations and combinations using a dynamic tree diagram, a dynamic list of permutations, and a dynamic computation by the counting principle. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.CP.B.10: : Use visual representations in counting (e.g. combinations, permutations, etc.) including but not limited to: Venn diagrams, Tree diagrams.

Binomial Probabilities

Find the probability of a number of successes or failures in a binomial experiment using a tree diagram, a bar graph, and direct calculation. 5 Minute Preview

Permutations and Combinations

Experiment with permutations and combinations of a number of letters represented by letter tiles selected at random from a box. Count the permutations and combinations using a dynamic tree diagram, a dynamic list of permutations, and a dynamic computation by the counting principle. 5 Minute Preview

### AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD: : Using Probability to Make Decisions

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.A: : Calculate expected values and use them to solve problems

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.A.2: : Calculate the expected value of a random variable. Interpret the expected value of a random variable as the mean of the probability distribution.

Polling: City

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.A.3: : Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be calculated. Find the expected value.

Binomial Probabilities

Find the probability of a number of successes or failures in a binomial experiment using a tree diagram, a bar graph, and direct calculation. 5 Minute Preview

Geometric Probability

Randomly throw darts at a target and see what percent are "hits." Vary the size of the target and repeat the experiment. Study the relationship between the area of the target and the percent of darts that strike it 5 Minute Preview

Independent and Dependent Events

Lucky Duck (Expected Value)

Pick a duck, win a prize! Help Arnie the carnie design his game so that he makes money (or at least breaks even). How many ducks of each type should there be? What are the prizes worth? How much should he charge to play? Lucky Duck is a fun way to learn about probabilities and expected value. 5 Minute Preview

Probability Simulations

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of particular outcomes to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Experiment with spinners and compare the experimental probability of a particular outcome to the theoretical probability. Select the number of spinners, the number of sections on a spinner, and a favorable outcome of a spin. Then tally the number of favorable outcomes. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.A.4: : Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which probabilities are assigned empirically. Find the expected value.

Geometric Probability

Randomly throw darts at a target and see what percent are "hits." Vary the size of the target and repeat the experiment. Study the relationship between the area of the target and the percent of darts that strike it 5 Minute Preview

Independent and Dependent Events

Probability Simulations

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.B: : Use probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.B.5: : Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values.

Lucky Duck (Expected Value)

Pick a duck, win a prize! Help Arnie the carnie design his game so that he makes money (or at least breaks even). How many ducks of each type should there be? What are the prizes worth? How much should he charge to play? Lucky Duck is a fun way to learn about probabilities and expected value. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.B.6: : Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).

Lucky Duck (Expected Value)

Pick a duck, win a prize! Help Arnie the carnie design his game so that he makes money (or at least breaks even). How many ducks of each type should there be? What are the prizes worth? How much should he charge to play? Lucky Duck is a fun way to learn about probabilities and expected value. 5 Minute Preview

AR.Math.Content.HSS.MD.B.7: : Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).

Lucky Duck (Expected Value)

Correlation last revised: 9/16/2020

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